By Vanessa Saunders, MBA, MIMC, Broker Owner, Global Property Systems Real Estate.
It’s never wise to try to predict a change in the Hudson Valley real estate market. But when you look at three key factors that will be affecting Hudson Valley home sales this spring, it seems obvious to me there’s a storm on the horizon. Whether you are a buyer or a seller, you should be prepared.
Factor 1: Last Year’s Anxious Home Buyers
Many people trying to buy homes in late 2020 and the winter of 2021 found nothing but frustration. Because there were so few homes on the market, the competition for good ones was intense. We saw (and continue to see) bidding wars, crazy prices and even crazier offers. Most winning bids involved cash, waived contingencies and offers well beyond lender appraisals.
You can bet that buyers in the Spring 2021 market will come out swinging, ready to pounce on whatever properties suit their needs. There will still be work-from-home buyers reaching for suburban and rural properties, no longer concerned about being too far from their urban offices. Sellers need to be ready to sell, offering properties in good condition, inspection-ready and with their ducks in a row. Sellers also should have a place to move to, and be ready to move.
Factor 2: Last year’s invisible inventory.
A lot of homeowners who were considering selling last year didn’t put their homes on the market, precisely because the market was so volatile. Many kept their homes off the market intending to “Wait-and-See.” Other sellers were reticent to list and risk exposure to Covid-19 from agents and buyers coming to view the property.
Much of this property inventory, which was there but invisible a year ago, will get listed this spring, adding fuel to the fire driving last year’s unsuccessful buyers.
Factor 3: Interest rates.
Although mortgage interest rates have twitched up a bit, they are still in the 3% range. These rates may not be at all-time-low levels, but compared to past decades, are still phenomenally low: Consider these average mortgage lending rates by decade:
1970s: 8.86%
1980s: 12.7%
1990s: 8.12%
2000s: 6.29%
2010s: 4.09%
Regardless of what happens to real estate in the Hudson Valley over the next nine months, it will be interesting to watch. As Bette Davis said, “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”
